Моделирование И Прогнозирование Международных Отношений/International Forecast And Simulations

Timetable

Module aim (aims)

The intention of the author of the program is to equip students with possibly full knowledge of the methods of forecasting and conducting international simulations. Therefore, the following topics will be discussed:
1. Laws of the development and changeability of international relations (internationalisation; institutionalisation; international influences; international interdependences). Forecasting and the importance of prognostic research;
2. Forecast and its properties (including the theory of forecast, forecast functions—preparatory activatory, informational; forecast classifications—criterion: the time horizon, nature or structure, level of detail, conceptualisation scope, territorial scope, purpose, or function);
3. Forecasting methods and techniques (among others, concepts: method, forecasting method; forecasting stages, forecasting principles). Heuristics in international forecasting (among others, brainstorming, Method 635, Delphi method, morphological analysis, synectics). International scenario analysis in forecasting (among others, the nature of the scenario—research, anticipatory, descriptive, prescriptive; principles of constructing scenarios—defining an object of study, identifying and describing phenomena, documenting quantitative links, preparing forecasts of the environment of the object, developing a prescenario, identifying factors affecting the development process of the object, preparing a scenario);
4. Global scenarios. The activities of the Club of Rome, Hudson Institute (and other organisations such as think thanks);
5. Forecasting versus planning a state’s foreign policy and international political and economic relations. The activities of Polish and foreign forecasting organisations;
6. Strategic review in a state’s foreign policy (among others, the concept of strategic review; examples of strategic reviews);
7. Forecasting in the science of international relations versus other fields of science (among others, game theory and its use in politics; neurobiology and human decision-making, memetics and its explanation of evolution);
8. International simulation (among others, the concept of international simulation; international simulation classifications). Computer simulations of the development of international relations.
9. Conspiracy theories (among others, caution in carrying out research into conspiracy theories; both historical and contemporary versions of conspiracy theories).
10. Famous futurists and their forecasts (among others. Aldous Huxley; Alvin and Heidi Toffler; Francis Fukuyama; Neil Postman; Samuel P. Huntington; George Friedman, Michio Kaku; Valerija Pride, etc.).
The lectures pay special attention to covering the laws of the development of international relations and illustrating with examples, in an approachable way, the issues discussed. Translating theory into socio-political life will allow students to use their knowledge efficiently.

Pre-requisites in terms of knowledge, skills and social competences (where relevant)

Syllabus

Week 1: Laws of the development and changeability of international relations

Week 2: Forecast and its properties

Week 3: Forecasting methods and techniques

Week 4: Selected passive and active methods in international forecasting

Week 5: Heuristics in international forecasting

Week 6: International scenario analysis in forecasting

Week 7: Global scenarios

Week 8: Activity of Polish forecasting organisations

Week 9: Forecasting versus planning a state’s foreign policy and international political and economic relations

Week 10: International simulation

Week 11: Game theory

Week 12: Computer simulations in the social sciences

Week 13: Forecasting in the science of international relations and other fields of science.

Week 14:Conspiracy theories

Week 15: Famous futurists and their predictions

Reading list

I. Reading list:
1. Online resources available at: http://unitednations.ru/ ; http://www.intertrends.ru/ ; http://evolutio.info/ ; http://www.spsmoscow.ru ; http://www.olegarin.com/olegarin/PDF/OA2.PDF ; etc.
2. Pietraś Z. J., Decydowanie polityczne, Warszawa – Kraków 1998
3. Sepkowski A., Człowiek a przyszłość, Toruń 2005
4. Stryjski K. J., Prognozowanie i symulacje międzynarodowe, Łódź 2004

II. Supplementary Reading:
1. Guzik B., Appenzeller D., Jurek W., Prognozowanie i symulacje. Wybrane zagadnienia, Poznań 2004
2. Huntington S. P., Zderzenie cywilizacji i nowy kształt ładu światowego, Warszawa 2005
3. Rutkowski C., Przegląd strategiczny jako narzędzie polityki, Warszawa 2003
4. Straffin P. D., Teoria gier, Warszawa 2004
5. Sułek M., Metody i techniki badań stosunków międzynarodowych, Warszawa 2004